000
FXUS62 KTBW 200005
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Stacked ridging continues over the region but is slowly weakening
over the weekend as the warm and dry conditions persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Generally VFR conditions tonight with light/variable winds and
clear skies but expect localized field fog in typical prone areas
towards sunrise. Bay and seabreeze winds return on Saturday aft 15Z
with FEW-SCT around 050.

&&


.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A fairly warm and rain free couple of days as high pressure
remains over the Peninsula. Very dry airmass should also be in
place with humidity values getting dangerously low over the
interior. In terms of winds, both tonight and Saturday should be
light and variable becoming onshore behind the afternoon sea
breeze. Temperatures climb up into the low 90s in most areas,
except for the immediate coast during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

During the long term, an upper level disturbance currently
impacting the southwestern dessert should approach the Southeast
by early next week and out of the area late on Monday. At this
time, model guidance keeps most of the U/L support north of the
CWA. If this materializes, the highest rain chances should lay
along the I-4 corridor and north. Nonetheless, areas south could
experiences a shower or two.

Behind the aforementioned disturbance, a weak high pressure
builds through the rest of the period. This should also push
cooler temperatures into the state mainly in the morning. However,
they will not last long. Afternoon highs warm back up to the 90s
during the second half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Area of high pressure should keep light winds and seas through
the weekend with an onshore flow developing each afternoon along
the coast. The next cold front will move across the waters on
Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best
chance across the northern waters. High pressure will build back
over the region in the wake of the front on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

High pressure remains in control across fore districts with light and
variable winds early, and westerly in the afternoon through Saturday.
The main concern will be the potential for low clouds and fog tonight
and into Saturday morning. Most of it should be ground fog and should
dissipate after sunrise. Minimum humidities are expected to be near
or at critical levels during this time, especially over interior
locations. However, the lack of wind should keep any warnings from
being needed. Then, a disturbance increases rain chances into early
next week. Followed by cooler and drier conditions later in the
period as high pressure returns to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  87  70  84 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  69  89  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  66  92  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  67  87  68  85 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  87  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  71  83  71  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion